CJ Stroud vs Trevor Lawrence: Wednesday QB Battle

This Sunday Trevor Lawrence and the Jacksonville Jaguars will take on division rival CJ Stroud and the Texans back home at EverBank Field. This is a matchup Stroud has dominated since he put on a Texans uniform with a 3-1 record while throwing 7 TDs 0 INTs and completing nearly 66% of his passes. Lawrence meanwhile has struggled in this matchup even before Stroud got to Houston with just a 2-5 record while throwing 7TDs 8 INTs and completing roughly 60% of his passes (The game where Lawrence was knocked out on a cheap shot by a Houston LB was not included in these "statistics"). Houston has historically been Lawrence's hardest matchup while Stroud has diced up Jacksonville's defense. To be fair to Lawrence however, the Texans have had a better defense than Jacksonville in every single matchup he has played in and its never really been close. This year might finally be the year the tables have turned as this years Jaguars defense looks much better than the ones Stroud has faced the previous two years. With that being said let's take a look at how this season has gone for these two guys 2 weeks in.

2025 QB Stats Through Week 2

Trevor Lawrence

Pass Yds	Pass TDs	INTs	Completion %	Rushing Yds	Rushing TDs
449	4	3	58.9	16	0

CJ Stroud

Pass Yds	Pass TDs	INTs	Completion %	Rushing Yds	Rushing TDs
395	1	1	62.7	59	0

The stats through 2 weeks for these guys very much resemble what they've been (or tried to be) during their young NFL careers. Much of Lawrence's career he's been a gun slinger, often putting the ball in harms way to try and make plays for a bad roster. Stroud is usually more protective of the ball trying to pick his spots and avoid the big turnover at all cost.

Both of these guys are posting low completion percentages but for completely different reasons. Lawrence has obviously struggled with some drops from receivers and is having a hard time getting on the same page as his top target Brian Thomas Jr leading to some "inaccurate" passes. The more I watch Lawrence the more I lean towards his eyes being wrong far more than his arm is. I don't think he misses where he is trying to throw the ball very often. His misses seem to be more a cause of him seeing a different picture than what's actually happening. The obvious example is the clip of him trying to throw a deep slant to BTJ and it ends up intercepted. The throw itself is very accurate and if Thomas Jr continues his route its a perfect completion. Lawrence just doesn't see the safety drop into the zone he's trying to throw to causing Thomas Jr to stop his route. In my opinion this is what makes a lot of Lawrence's throws look "inaccurate" when the actual issue is him being accurate to the wrong spot.

CJ Stroud seems to be having a much different issue through 2 weeks. Stroud almost seems to be too cautious with the ball at times. When there is a defender in the area Stroud tends to put the ball so far away from that defender that his receiver doesn't even have a shot at it. On his first possession of the Rams game week 1 Stroud has 2nd and 17 early in the drive. He's attempting to hit a back shoulder throw to Nico Collins down the left sideline but puts the ball so far to the outside that Nico doesn't even have a shot to make a play on it. The next week against the Bucs, Stroud has 3rd and 9 in the red zone with a chance to go up 14-0. His TE pops open on a crosser with a CB trailing just behind. Its a tough throw but one an incredibly accurate Stroud usually makes. He puts the ball so high and away from the trailing CB that his TE has no opportunity to even make a play on it. It's great that he's taking care of the ball but that's a touchdown that Houston desperately needed to put Tampa in a two touchdown hole.

The reason these issues are so surprising for Stroud is because of how accurate he can be and has been over the first two years of his career. He's right up there with Joe Burrow as a guy who can drop it in a bucket from anywhere if he needs to. His throw to Nico Collins on the Texans first drive was a thing of beauty. He throws a deep fade down the left sideline to Nico who has a step on the corner behind him. The ball is perfectly placed to where only his guy can make a play on it and still come down in bounds. If he starts trusting himself to make that throw more often the Texans would be better for it.

While it might not seem like it, Stroud will have the advantage of less pressure coming into this one. Stroud has had a ton of success against the Jags and we'll probably feel comfortable heading into a stadium he's never lost, playing against a team that he's never thrown a pick against. All of the pressure will be on Lawrence heading into this one where he faces a team that has given him a lot of problems in his young career. It won't help that he has struggled to find his best receiver the first two weeks of the season. The Texans pass defense is still lethal and will be licking their chops to play against a guy who they've intercepted 8 times the last seven full games he's played against them.