Jaguars @ 49ers: Game Preview

Game: Jaguars @ 49ers

Location: Levi Stadium Santa Clara, CA

Time: 4:05 PM

Forecast: 74 Degrees, Mostly Sunny

Injury Updates

Jaguars: Jacksonville will be a fairly healthy team coming into another game. Three offensive lineman, Patrick Mekari, Ezra Cleveland, and Wyatt Milum were listed as LP (limited practice) for Wednesday and Thursday but I'd expect Mekari and Cleveland to play for sure with a 50/50 chance of having the rookie, Milum available for his first regular season action. Tuten was limited with a shoulder injury again this week but shouldn't be in danger of missing Sundays game. Brian Thomas Jr was full go again with the wrist injury and will be ready to. Dyami Brown is the only questionable one of the three with a shoulder injury sustained against the Texans last Sunday, but he's trending towards being available as well.

49ers: The 49ers aren't as lucky coming into this one. It seems the injury bug has struck again in San Francisco as they'll be missing quite a few key pieces. The biggest news is obviously the absence of star pass rusher Nick Bosa who tore his ACL last week. He'll be out for the season. San Francisco also has a major question mark at QB. Brock Purdy missed the last two games dealing with a left shoulder and toe issue. Mac Jones who came in to the year as the backup, started the last two games, but reaggravated a PCL injury in last weeks game against the Cardinals. My money would be on one of those two guys being ready to go, but if the can't the 49ers will likely turn to 3rd stringer Adrian Martinez. If that wasn't enough for 49er fans Ricky Pearsall popped up on the injury report with a knee issue after finishing the game on Sunday. He didn't practice Wednesday and was limited on Thursday putting him in jeopardy of missing this weeks game. He was the teams top target coming into this matchup and would be another massive loss for San Francisco. Juan Jennings, another key receiver for the 49ers, has missed both practices so far this week and is most likely out. There's about a million more guys listed on the 49ers injury report but these are the key guys to keep an eye on coming into Sunday.

Jaguars Breakdown

The Jaguars come into this one 2-1 and a questionable call against the Bengals away from being perfect through 3 games. It's been a very promising start for an organization that started from scratch in the front office and hired a completely new coaching staff in the offseason. The crazy part is this Jags team feels a long ways away from their ceiling still. There's been a lot of good early in the season and that's mostly been on the defensive side of the ball. New DC Campanile has brought a new scheme into Jacksonville that, coupled with a few key additions, has given offenses a ton of problems so far. The Jaguars aren't generating a ton of sacks yet with just 6 in 3 games but it's mostly do to the fact QBs have been picking turnover over sack. The pressure from the front 4 and Campanile's exotic blitz packages has lead to teams making, which has led to a league leading 9 takeaways. The Jaguars finished the year with just 6 INTs last year and have already surpassed that mark with 7 in just 3 games. I don't expect the defense to keep up the ridiculous pace of 3 takeaways per game, but I do expect the sack numbers to climb as the turnovers slow down. Josh Hines-Allen only has a half sack on the year so far despite being top 10 in QB pressures. A good indicator that he'll turn that around. The last thing I want to point out on the defensive side is Arik Armstead's impact since returning to his DT spot. He was flat out awful playing out of position on the edge last year finishing with just 2 sacks in 17 games. He's already at 1.5 sacks in 3 games this year and his impact is obvious when you flip on the tape.

The Jaguars offense has a small amount of good with a lot of bad 3 games in, which makes it that much more impressive this team was almost 3-0. The run game was great the first two weeks of the season with 200 yards in the opener and 139 yards week 2 before running into a Houston D that held them to just 86 yards. This was mostly do to the fact that Houston used a 5 man front to stop the run most of the game and they received very little help from a miserable passing attack last Sunday. After just 11 yards in the first half Coen was able to just and get the run game going in the 2nd so I imagine the run game will look good again this week. Now for the bad and it's mainly centered around the passing game. Most of the blame should go towards the receivers unfortunately. The lead the league with 13 drops in 3 games and it's a number that would be way higher if the definition for a drop was a little more relaxed. There have also been a lot for "contested" opportunities that you'd like to the see them come up with. They've also had a ridiculous amount of illegal shift penalties that seem to be a receiver issue based on previous press conferences. Last week Dyami Brown had one that wiped out a beautiful 20 yard gain to Brian Thomas Jr on 3rd and 14. Lawrence deserves some of the blame as well. He already has 4 INTs on the season and while a couple of those weren't his fault he also can't throw the one he threw against Houston. The good news for Jaguar fans is that most of these issues are pretty simple fixes.

49ers Breakdown

The 49ers are off to a 3-0 start after surviving 3 close games so far. They needed a game winning drive in weeks 1 and 3 and had to hold off a late rally from Spencer Rattler and the Saints in week 2. Good organizations find ways to win and the 49ers have done that 3 games in. Unfortunately for the 49ers they'll be short handed again this week. The 49ers passing attack has leaned heavily on Ricky Pearsall who has 16 catches for 281 yards in just three weeks. Without him or Juan Jennings I'm not sure who the go to guy would be to stretch the field. I'd expect to see a LOT of McCaffery this week, especially if Adrian Martinez gets the start. He already has 77 touches in just 3 weeks including 25 catches for 213 yards and a score. That's almost 80 yards more than Jaguars leading receiver TE Brenton Strange. Outside of Pearsall and McCaffery no one else has been nearly as productive. Jennings has 7 catches for 105 yards but has caught less than half of his 15 targets. Bourne who could be their top wideout this week only has 7 catches for 70 yards so far. A lot of this game will come down to how productive CMC can be against a very good Jaguars defense.

While the 49ers defense hasn't given up a lot points this season it's also a unit that hasn't been very productive. They come into this game with only 5 sacks and 3 Takeaways. All three of those takeaways have been fumble recoveries which are hard to sustain and they have yet to have an INT. They'll have a good opportunity this week to get their first since Lawrence has thrown at least 1 INT in every game this year. Despite lacking production they are top 5 in both YPG (yards per game) and PPG (points per game) through 3 games. It's also worth noting that 2 of the teams 5 sacks belong to DE Nick Bosa who is out for the year. The other 3 belong to DE Bryce Huff (2) and CB Upton Stout (1). Jacksonville has been a solid pass blocking team so far this season and if the 49ers can't get the Jaguars into some very obvious passing situations I have a hard time seeing this be the week their D-line racks up a ton of sacks. Much like the offense this San Francisco defense appears to be very top heavy, depending on its stars to play like stars. That's great until the stars aren't on the field which seems like the case this week.

Game Prediction

Final Score: Jaguars 24 49ers 14

I had the 49ers scoring 30 and winning when I picked this game before the season and I'm pretty confident that just won't happen. It would shock me if a 49ers offense this banged up scores 30 on a Jaguars defense that has looked very impressive in 3 games and downright nasty in 2 of those games. The Jaguars should be able to do enough on the ground to make this a scrappy game like they did against Houston. I know that Jacksonville hasn't typically been good on the West Coast but they hadn't been very good against Houston before last week. If there is a weakness on this 49ers defense it's been the run game where they're just middle of the pack in YPG. That happens to line up with Jacksonville's strength on offense. I expect a heavy dose of Ettiene and Tuten this week as they try and set up some easier throws for Lawrence and the WRs. In past years I would've said the 49ers have an obvious coaching advantage, but Liam Coen and the Jags coaches have shown me enough through 3 weeks for me to say that's not the case this time around.

Cool Thing That Will Happen

Sigh. 0-3 so far as CJ Stroud refused to throw a catchable ball deep unless his receiver was WIDE open, and I mean wide open. You could be thinking "why not pick something easier?" But no. Much like the bad gambler I am, I'm sticking with the long odds pal. So give me the Trevor Lawrence rushing TD this fan base has been craving since its disappearance after the 2022-2023 season. I think that run on the crucial 3rd down last week could be the spark that ignites a more run heavy Lawrence. Someone in that organization has to be telling him to take off more if your receivers can't catch, right?