Making a Case for a Trevor Lawrence Breakout Year

Trevor Lawrence the former number 1 pick out of Clemson was dubbed the best quarterback prospect since Andrew Luck and a true franchise changer when he entered the NFL draft. Through 4 years his stats don't exactly line up with someone who has done that so far. He's an underwhelming 22-38 with stats that seem to line up with Daniel Jones who is a popular comparison for the Lawrence through 4 years. Jones of course was sent packing from the Giants after the infamous overpay that led to the departure of Saquan Barkley and is on a 1 year prove it deal with the Colts. Not exactly the comparisons you want for someone labeled a franchise changer out of college. However, even though the stats and career record don't indicate it Lawrence could finally be headed for a true breakout year.

First lets start by establishing how much of the blame Trevor Lawrence deserves for his sub-par first 4 years. His rookie year he was saddled with possibly the worst coaching hire in NFL history in Urban Meyer. The roster was also being rebuilt after a 1-15 season where the organization (whether it openly admits it or not) was tanking for the possibility of taking a franchise QB in the next draft. Jacksonville was rewarded with its franchise QB. However, owner Shahid Khan left the rebuild of the roster in the hands of Head Coach Urban Meyer and GM Trent Baalke and the results were a disaster. Baalke failed to add any depth or true difference makers to a team coming off a 1-15 year. Meyer was even more of a disaster consistently being outcoached, out-schemed, and outworked while being a constant off the field distraction. He was in the media for so many scandals during his short time as head coach (13 games) that you would've assumed he had served a 4 year term running the country.

The following year the Jags hired Doug Pedersen who, with a super bowl on his resume, appeared to be a massive upgrade over Meyer. While his first season did see Jacksonville return to the playoffs and Trevor Lawrence's best year as a starter things quickly fell apart the following year. During the 2023 regular season the Jags were 8-3, coming off a monster win over an ascending Texans team, and looked headed for a second straight playoff berth. Unfortunately the very next week the Jaguars would blow a double digit lead to a Bengals team starting a backup quarterback. Lawrence would also take a nasty hit that left him with a nagging knee injury for the remainder of the season. The team would go 1-5 the rest of the way and miss the playoffs in brutal fashion, losing a division game to the Titans that would cost them the division. Pedersen's final season was more of how the previous season ended. The team looked unprepared and outcoached week in and week out. Pedersen constantly laid the blame at the feet of Trevor Lawrence failing to acknowledge a poor defense and awful play calling by OC Press Taylor. Pedersen would end up failing to be the massive upgrade ownership thought he would be from the Urban Meyer disaster. How much of this is Pedersen's fault for failing get the team ready or Baalke's fault for never addressing the many issues the roster had during his time as GM is up for debate. The one certainty is the majority of the blame isn't on Trevor Lawrence for how poorly the team has been ran during his career in Jacksonville.

Enter new HC Liam Coen and GM James Gladstone, who should both bring a breath of fresh air to a team and organization that desperately needs it. While the knock on both is that they lack age and experience to hold such positions Jags fans should ignore those criticisms and look at what they do bring. Coen is coming off helping another former number 1 pick whose career had a very familiar start to Lawrence's. Baker Mayfield was all but given the bust label and thrown out of the NFL after his time in Cleveland and Carolina. He was given a chance to compete for the staring spot with Kyle Trask with Tampa who at the time was picked to finish as the worst team in the NFL. Mayfield had a good first year under OC Dave Canales but really shined in his 2nd season under his new OC Liam Coen. The part that should really excite Jags fans is the improvement in the run game, which is always a quarterbacks best friend. If Coen can replicate the success he had running the ball last year that should take a lot of pressure off of Lawrence's shoulders. With a running back room featuring Travis Ettiene, Tank Bigsby, and Bhayshul Tuten, new HC Liam Coen should have no issues doing that.

Lawrence will also start the year with arguably the best weapons thanks to GM James Gladstone and offensive scheme under Coen he has had in his short NFL career. All three of the running backs should make an impact but the Jags could have a very sneaky top NFL receiving core this year if Parker Washington can finally break out and Dyami Brown is as good as has been through training camp. They of course will back up two very dynamic receivers in Brian Thomas Jr and rookie Travis Hunter. Up until the Jags drafted Thomas Jr, Trevor Lawrence's top receiver had been Christian Kirk or Calvin Ridley who hadn't played in over a year. Kirk was a vital part of the 2022 playoff run but just isn't a bona fide number 1 option in the NFL. Ridley had some great moments during the 2023 season but reportedly was often not in the right place in key moments and had a tendency to disappear when he was needed most. While guys like Joe Burrow, Patrick Mahomes, and Josh Allen were given true number 1's like Jamar Chase, Tyreek Hill, and Stefon Diggs very early in their careers Lawrence's best receiving option has been Kirk.

A new innovative Head Coach and the best team Lawrence has played with should lead him back to the success he was able to find the second half of 2022 when he was playing like a top 5 QB. Lawrence might not be perfect as Mayfield still was near the top of the league in turnovers but the offense should at least be more explosive and more fun to watch than it ever had when Doug Pedersen was at the helm. Expect Lawrence to be somewhere around 4200yds 32 Total TDs and keep it under 10 Ints and the Jacksonville Jaguars to return to the playoffs.

By Peyton Ferebee