The Media is way off on Trevor Lawrence and Justin Herbert

If all you've consumed for the past few years in mainstream sports media then you know where they stand on Trevor Lawrence and Justin Herbert. Herbert is widely considered a top 10 and to some even a top 5 QB in the NFL. Lawrence on the other hand, is considered one bad season away from being a total bust an many believe he might already be there. Bill Simmons former ESPN "analyst" went as far as calling Lawrence "bad at football" for how he played last year. This is the same Trevor Lawrence that won a National Championship in college, right Bill? Is it actually possible that the national media is wrong and the comparison between the two QB's careers could be closer than you think.

Let's first acknowledge the fact that the reason most people have Herbert over Lawrence is simply regular season stats. Here's the numbers so far:

Justin Herbert:

66.5% Completion

21,093 Passing Yards

137TDs to 45INTs

41-38 career record

Trevor Lawrence:

63.3% Completion

13,815 Passing Yards

69TDs to 46INTs

22-38 career record

It is worth noting that these numbers include 19 more games for Herbert and Lawrence's rookie year where he was coached by Urban Meyer. So if Herbert holds such a massive edge in regular season numbers how is there a case for Lawrence? Simple. Herbert's numbers just haven't led to wins or postseason success. Those are two very important factors when examining a QB's career. While over his career Herbert is over .500 at 41-38 he's been abysmal against playoff teams. His record drops to 9-26 against teams that go on to make the playoffs that season. Lawrence is slightly better over his career at 7-22. Compare the last 3 seasons and Herbert is only 3-18 while Lawrence has double the wins at a record of 6-15. So over his career Lawrence has actually had more success against playoff teams than Herbert has.

One thing that you never hear brought up for either of these guys is how they've performed in the playoffs. It only gets worse for Herbert if you compare postseason stats between the two. Both guys have played two playoff games so far and the stats aren't close:

Justin Herbert Playoffs:

52% Completion

515 Passing Yards

2 TDs to 4INTs

0-2 Playoff Record

Trevor Lawrence Playoffs:

60% Completion

505 Passing Yards

5TDs to 5INTs

1-1 Playoff Record

The last thing that should be factored in for these two QB's is how they've performed head to head. Lawrence is currently 2-0 against Herbert and the Chargers. One of those games was a 28 point victory in Herbert's stadium and the other was a playoff game in Jacksonville where the Jags overcame a 27 point deficit and Herbert only managed to score 3 points in the 2nd half. The Chargers were favored in both games and were a popular preseason super bowl pick that season.

So while Herbert holds a decided edge over Lawrence in regular season stats, Lawrence has been much better against playoff teams and has performed better in the playoffs so far. There's not much evidence that Herbert's monster stats means he's been more valuable to his team than Lawrence when it comes to wins especially against tougher competition. This combined with Lawrence's 2-0 record against Herbert suggest that maybe the two should be viewed closer than they seem to be at the moment. Lawrence might even have a slight edge at this point.